Over the years every team selects players with their draft picks that they later regret. The goal is to keep those mistakes to a minimum, and as much as possible, limit them to the later rounds where it doesn't hurt quite so much. A succession of high draft pick "busts" can completely cripple a team's hopes for years.
For the purposes of this article, I'll be limiting the pool of players eligible for this dubious distinction to only those who were selected in the first 3 rounds during the most recent decade (2000-09). Round 4 and beyond is typically when teams start to make "reach" selections in the hopes of filling a particular need, or hitting the jackpot by finding the next diamond in the rough. Someone like Tom Brady (199th pick of the 2000 draft) who somehow managed to get overlooked by every team in the league. This happened despite the exhaustive scrutiny, testing and interview process that all NFL player prospects endure in the months leading up to the draft. Leveraging the benefit of hindsight, I will also point out a player the team should have selected instead of the bust that they saddled themselves with.
Giovanni Carmazzi - QB Hofstra (3rd round, 65th overall pick in 2000):I can still recall seeing draft analysts scratching their heads over this one. Fortunately 49er management didn't waste a first rounder on this guy. Nonetheless, it's highly unlikely he would have been drafted at all had the 49ers not fallen in love with him.
Career production: Carmazzi spent 2 years on San Francisco's roster, but never played a down. In fact, he was never even activated for a single game.
Player they should have selected instead: Tom Brady (QB). During his 10 seasons in the league, Brady has compiled a 97-30 regular season record as a starter (14-4 in the post season). He's completed 63.3% of his passes for 30,844 yards with 225 touchdowns and 99 interceptions for a career QB rating of 93.3. He's also appeared in 4 Super Bowls, winning 3 of them. Brady has been selected to play in the Pro Bowl 5 times and was named first team All-pro in 2007. But everyone missed on Brady, I hear you say. Alright, how about Laveranues Coles (WR / KR) then? In his 138 career starts thus far, he's tallied 674 receptions for 8,609 receiving yards and 49 touchdowns.
Rashaun Woods - WR Oklahoma State (1st round, 31st overall pick in 2004):49er management outsmarted themselves in 2004 as they traded down twice to end up with the 31st pick, whereupon they selected Woods. In doing so they missed out on the opportunity to draft a premiere talent like Pro Bowl defensive tackle Vince Wilfork (Patriots), or future Hall of Fame running back Steven Jackson (Rams), among others. Woods played only 1 season in the league.
Career production: Activated for 14 games in his lone season, he never started, but did manage to catch 7 balls for 160 yards and 1 touchdown.
Player they should have selected instead: Karlos Dansby (LB). Taken two picks after Woods at #33, Dansby is enjoying a successful career that has seen him total 25.5 sacks, 10 interceptions, 12 forced fumbles and 456 tackles thus far.
Kentwan Balmer - DT North Carolina (1st round, 29th overall pick in 2008):Admittedly an intriguing prospect at the time of the '08 draft, yet it was common knowledge then that opinion among pro scouts was, that as a "one year wonder" in college, he was not a prospect worthy of a 1st round grade. Even amateur draft enthusiast like myself knew prior to that draft that he was only worth risking a 3rd, or possibly late 2nd round pick on. The 49ers had a glaring need at the WR position then as well and would have done much better by selecting someone like dynamic WR / PR DeSean Jackson from Cal. Other promising prospects available for the 49ers at pick 29 included WR Eddie Royal, WR Donnie Avery, and DB Brandon Flowers.
Career production: Active for 27 games during his 2 years in the league, Balmer has yet to start a single game and has recorded only 11 Tackles and 0 Sacks thus far in his career.
Player they should have selected instead: DeSean Jackson (WR / PR). A Pro Bowl selection in 2009, Jackson tied an all-time NFL record with 8 Touchdowns of over 50 yards in a single season last year. He's recorded 124 receptions, 2,068 yards and 11 touchdowns as a receiver in his 2 year career. He's also performed brilliantly as a punt returner - amassing 881 yards on 79 returns, 3 of which he returned all the way for touchdowns.
Andrew Williams - DE Miami (3rd round, 89th overall pick in 2003):Although he wasn't taken until the second half of the 3rd round in 2003, that draft proved to be an exceptionally deep one that was rich in talent. The 49ers brain trust rated Williams higher than some outstanding players selected by other teams after Williams was taken. Included in this list are names like former Pro Bowl corner Terrence McGee (17 career INTs), All-Pro CB Asante Samuel (selected to 3 Pro Bowls), Pro Bowl DE Robert Mathis (63 career sacks), powerful FB Justin Griffith, and talented LB Bradie James.
Career production: In 2 years with the 49ers, Williams was activated for 9 games, including 3 starts and managed to account for 10 Tackles.
Player they should have selected instead: Asante Samuel (CB). Selected to each of the last 3 Pro Bowls, Samuel has recorded 35 interceptions (returning 4 for touchdowns), 118 pass deflections and 5 forced fumbles thus far in his career. He's led the league in interceptions twice ('06 and '09 seasons) and was voted 1st team All-Pro in 2007.
Alex Smith - Utah (1st round, 1st overall pick in 2005):Alex began to show signs of being a legitimate NFL quarterback in 2009. An improving supporting cast, as well as a second consecutive season with the same Offensive Coordinator and system in 2010 should enhance his development even further. Still, despite the 49ers desperate need for a QB then, they should have gone a different direction with their draft strategy. They knew then that Smith had unusually small hands for a QB and that he never played a down in a pro-style offense in college, or even in high-school, for that matter. Despite these red flags, and some convincing arguments at the time that Cal QB Aaron Rodgers was the better pro prospect, the 49ers selected Alex Smith first overall in the 2005 draft and thereby passed on an opportunity to select other notable 1st round picks that year. Players like OLB/DE DeMarcus Ware (Cowboys), OLB Shawne Merriman (Chargers), RB Ronnie Brown (Dolphins), WR Roddy White (Falcons) and QB Aaron Rodgers (Packers), to name just a few.
Career production: In 5 seasons with San Francisco, Smith has compiled a 16-24 record in his 40 starts. He's completed 56.3% of his passes for 7,029 yards, with 37 touchdowns and 43 interceptions for a career 69.2 passer rating.
Player they should have selected instead: Aaron Rodgers (QB). 17-15 as a starter in Green Bay, Rodgers has completed 63.9% of his passes for 8,801 yards, with 59 touchdowns and 21 interceptions for a 97.2 passer rating. 97.2 represents the highest career passer rating in the history of the NFL.
No comments:
Post a Comment